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Source: Rubrik Quarterly Earnings
Feature Story
The FORECASTING SCIENCE BEHIND GROWING TO +$1B in ARR
Scaling Revenue Is a Deliberate Craft
There are many playbooks written on sales strategy, but not many written on sales ops tactics.
This is the latter.
Rubrik is a prime example of sales ops done right. Over the past few years, the company has:
Built a highly structured forecasting process that gets real about deal risks early.
Designed quotas that reps actually trust (no sandbagging, no “pie in the sky” targets).
Created territory models that maximize rep effectiveness instead of just dividing up accounts arbitrarily.
Installed an "accountability forum" that forces sales, marketing, and finance leaders to confront tough revenue questions.
Oh, and they went public.
Behind all of this is a playbook that ensures every deal is inspected, every rep is set up for success, and every quarter is optimized for growth. This isn’t just about having an airtight CRM; it’s about running sales ops like a proactive, analytical machine.
In this piece, we’ll break down exactly how Rubrik structures its sales operation:
Part I: Calibrating Your Forecasting Cadence
Part II: Quota Design
Part III: Territory Assignment
Part IV: Accountability
Let’s dive in so that you can apply these principles to your own business.
Part I: Calibrating Your Forecasting Cadence
At the core of forecasting is the ability to spot risks early on and move resources where they’re needed most.
At Rubrik, forecasting is a high-discipline, structured process that ensures sales leaders and finance have a real pulse on the business before reporting up to the C-suite.
Rubrik’s Forecasting Cadence
It’s one thing to set the plan and get people comfortable. But it’s a whole different thing to execute against it. And where you earn your stripes is that execution. And that starts with having thoughtful cadences and meetings, and thinking about what discussions need to happen in those meetings.
This is the cadence:
Wednesday-Thursday (of prior week): The real cadence with the AVPs (area VPs) and RDs (regional director level) starts the week prior. They meet with their reps to finalize pipeline, validate deals, and flag risks. This goes into the CROs report that he receives on Monday.
Monday: The CRO reviews his rolled up forecast with his directs (the Global VPs of Americas, APAC, EMEA) in separate calls. They review the topline forecast, and then dig into the deal level and opportunity level forecasts within each AVP’s jurisdiction. Meetings are also held with finance and deal desk to give throughout the week to help move deals along
Friday: The C-suite gets the final forecast, complete with deal risk assessments, pipeline health metrics, and sales velocity insights.
By the time the forecast reaches the CFO and CEO, it’s not based on gut feel; it’s data-driven and stress-tested. It’s a continual, living process that is always in motion at some level.
How Rubrik Identifies Deals That Are at Risk
Not all pipeline is created equal. To separate real revenue from wishful thinking, Rubrik applies a structured deal review framework that surfaces red flags early. Here it is:
Path vs. Out-of-Path Deals – Every deal is categorized as “in-path” (validated by leadership) or “out-of-path” (flagged as risky).
If a deal is committed but lacks executive buy-in, it gets investigated.
Commit vs. Reality Check – Reps might believe in a deal, but do their RVPs agree?
Any discrepancy between frontline commitments and leadership confidence is a warning sign.
Sales Process Hygiene – The team checks whether the deal meets core sales process criteria:
Have we identified clear customer pain?
Are the right stakeholders engaged?
Have we created a compelling event that forces urgency?
These early interventions prevent last-minute surprises, reduce end-of-quarter panic, and increase forecast accuracy, allowing leadership to make confident revenue decisions.
Part II: Quota Design: Math That Reps Actually Believe
One of the fastest ways to lose a sales team’s trust is by setting unrealistic quotas. If reps don’t believe they can hit their number, they disengage, sandbag deals, or start looking for another job.
At Rubrik, quota design is a science. Instead of top-down mandates, quotas are built from the ground up, based on real activity metrics that show how reps can actually achieve their goals.
Rubrik’s quota-setting process starts with the end goal and works backward using actual sales data. Here’s how they do it:
Step 1: Start with the rep’s quota – Example: A $600K quota per half-year.
Step 2: Calculate necessary pipeline coverage – Assume a 20% conversion rate, meaning the rep needs $3.5M in pipeline.
Step 3: Break it down into activity targets – Using historical data, Rubrik determines:
How many new business meetings a rep needs each week.
The conversion rate from meetings → opportunities → closed deals.
The average deal size to validate whether the math makes sense.
By tying activity metrics directly to quota expectations, reps see a clear, realistic path to hitting their number, which leads to higher motivation and less resistance when quotas are rolled out.
Ensuring Fairness & Transparency
Quota complaints usually boil down to two things:
“My number is too high.”
“My territory isn’t good enough.”
Rubrik preemptively addresses both concerns:
Historical Performance Review: Quotas are compared against past rep attainment data to ensure fairness.
Market Potential Analysis: Rubrik uses a data model to size each rep’s opportunity based on territory ICP fit, deal sizes, and past conversion rates.
Sales Leader Buy-In: Before quotas are finalized, sales leadership reviews the methodology to ensure alignment and credibility.
Because reps can see exactly how their quota was built, they’re more likely to trust it. This reduces pushback and increasing quota attainment rates.
Why This Matters
Many companies assign quotas in some conference room, without input from sales, and with incomplete data. and then wonder why reps don’t hit them. At Rubrik, quota setting is a collaborative, data-driven process that sets reps up for success before the quarter even starts.
This leads to less quota resistance, higher attainment, and a more motivated sales team.
Part III: Territory Assignment: Giving Reps a Fair Shot at Winning
At a high-growth company like Rubrik, territory design isn’t just about drawing lines on a map; it’s about making sure every rep has a real shot at hitting their number based on a realistic workload and the rep’s experience working with customers.
This approach maximizes pipeline generation and deal velocity.
How Rubrik Assigns Territories Without the Drama
Instead of arbitrary assignments, Rubrik’s process focuses on three core factors:
Revenue Potential, Not Just Geography
Territories are sized based on ICP fit, historical conversion rates, and total market opportunity (not just ZIP codes).
Matching Reps to the Right Accounts
Rep experience and relationships factor into assignments.
If a rep has sold successfully into a vertical, they’re more likely to be placed in a similar territory.
Preventing "Cherry-Picking" & Horse-Trading
A transparent account allocation model prevents reps from endlessly swapping accounts based on preference.
If a rep has an issue with their patch, there’s a structured appeals process. But data, not emotion, drives changes.
Why This Matters
Poor territory assignments lead to:
Reps wasting time on bad-fit accounts.
Territory disputes slowing down selling time.
Unfair quota assignments that hurt morale.
At Rubrik, the process is structured, data-driven, and transparent. This ensures ensuring every rep has a clear runway to hit their number without the usual friction.
Part IV: The Accountability Forum: Where Deals Get Scrutinized
At Rubrik, forecasting isn’t just a numbers game—it’s about making sure every committed deal is real. That’s where the Accountability Forum comes in.
This is a high-intensity, deal-by-deal review where revenue leaders pressure-test:
Which deals are actually closing this quarter?
Where are reps overcommitting (and where are they sandbagging)?
Are stalled deals fixable, or should they be pushed out?
What executive action is needed to unblock big deals?
If a deal is in the forecast, it needs to survive the scrutiny of the collective room.
How the Forum Works: Breaking Down the Cadence
Who’s in the Room?
CRO & Sales VPs (who own the number)
Regional GMs & RVPs (who own execution)
Finance (to validate revenue accuracy)
Deal Desk (to ensure contracts aren’t a roadblock)
What’s Reviewed?
Biggest Deals in the Forecast – Are we confident they will close?
Slipping Deals – What’s holding them back, and can we fix it?
Pipeline Coverage – If we’re light, what’s being done now to backfill it?
Competitive & Pricing Pressures – Are we losing deals we should be winning?
What’s Expected?
No "I think this will close" - bring real customer signals to back it up.
No forecast inflation - if a deal isn’t locked down, it gets adjusted.
If an exec or finance needs to step in, an action plan is created immediately.
Why This Works
Most companies rely on wishful thinking in their forecasts. At Rubrik, the Accountability Forum filters out the fluff, ensuring:
No last-minute surprises—bad deals get flagged early.
Leadership knows where to apply pressure to close key accounts.
Reps focus on real opportunities instead of chasing ghosts.
You don’t need to do all of this on day one. It would actually slow down a smaller company who is just trying to put some points on the board. What we’ve reviewed is a playbook when you are managing a global organization with hundreds of millions of dollars worth of renewals at stake every year. But all companies should build their rev ops in a way that maximizes for:
Transparency at the exec level
Accuracy at the sales ops level
Accountability at the rep level
How you dial those factors up and down can change based on your maturity and scale.
At any company, the ultimate goal is getting to a forecast that both the CEO and CFO can put their name to.
This playbook is based on an awesome convo I had with Samarth Mital, Senior Director - Global Revenue Planning, Operations & AI Transformation at Rubrik
Wishing you accurate forecasting in Q3,
CJ
