Hi CJ - thank you for the great analysis and some interesting details revealed. One small note - your point on existing investor and management cashing out prior to the IPO seems exactly the opposite of what the F-1 stated: it was a $800m primary fundraise where these insiders subscribed for newly issued shares
Again: an amazing post:) Thank you so much for this.
If Klarna's revenues are 2.8bn in 2024, even assuming +25% in 2025 (3.5bn), with 2.5-3x, how do you end up with a 15-20bn valuation? Even assuming you mean market cap, there is only 3.2bn of cash on Balance Sheet. Even accounting for zero debt, you would get c. 14bn
I am sure I am missing something, but keen to hear your calcs
Fantastic breakdown of the strengths and risks! I am super curious about this auditing risk… and how the ipo goes! 🍿 We just read this out loud on our road trip
Hi CJ - thank you for the great analysis and some interesting details revealed. One small note - your point on existing investor and management cashing out prior to the IPO seems exactly the opposite of what the F-1 stated: it was a $800m primary fundraise where these insiders subscribed for newly issued shares
Thank you for reading and for the comment! I had read that there were at least 800M of secondary sales historically but I'm not always right!
Great read. Im not a buyer: Consumer credit losses: $495M (up from $353M in 2023, now 17.6% of revenue)
A higher % than S&M
Again: an amazing post:) Thank you so much for this.
If Klarna's revenues are 2.8bn in 2024, even assuming +25% in 2025 (3.5bn), with 2.5-3x, how do you end up with a 15-20bn valuation? Even assuming you mean market cap, there is only 3.2bn of cash on Balance Sheet. Even accounting for zero debt, you would get c. 14bn
I am sure I am missing something, but keen to hear your calcs
Again, besides that: Keep it up!
I think you’re right! I will update
Fantastic breakdown of the strengths and risks! I am super curious about this auditing risk… and how the ipo goes! 🍿 We just read this out loud on our road trip
Out loud!?! On a road trip? Wow I’ve reached a new peak.
I need to find friends that allow me to read S1 breakdown out loud
😅
I think your# for AFRM credit losses ($510m) is too high. Im looking at the table on pg 105 of latest 10k